Budget 2025-26 delivers a carefully calibrated strategy-stimulating demand and investment while keeping fiscal discipline intact. In an environment marked by global trade disruptions, and a softening in urban consumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has taken a measured approach.
The government should have mentioned clearly the specific structural reforms that were responsible for the deviation from the fiscal deficit target by half a percentage point, says A K Bhattacharya.
With its age-old fascination for education, southern states have done better than the North. Start-ups, IT hubs, and industry majors setting up shop have changed the face of the South. Nearly 79% of global offices set up by international conglomerates in India are in the South. Almost 46% of tech unicorns are from the South. The GDP per person in the South is 4.2 times higher than the North. None of these indicators can be ignored by any central government, whatever the political compulsions, notes Ramesh Menon.
'Investors should continue with their SIPs, especially during market corrections.' 'For those looking to start new SIPs, beginning with large-cap funds is a prudent strategy, followed by flexi-cap and value-oriented approaches.'
NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule has criticized the Maharashtra government's decision to make Hindi a mandatory third language in schools, stating that it will not tolerate any undermining of the Marathi language. Sule also criticized the state's implementation of the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, expressing concerns about its potential impact on students and teachers. She also questioned the appointment of a retired bureaucrat as the chief economic advisor to the chief minister and criticized the state's performance in areas like fiscal deficit management and the Jal Jeevan Mission.
The economy is likely to register a 9.5 per cent growth this fiscal over 7.3 per cent contraction last year, as the ongoing recovery is faster and more credible than earlier foreseen, according to a foreign brokerage report. It will gather more momentum in the second half of the current fiscal, but will slow down to 7.7 per cent next financial year, it added. The government has budgeted for a 10.5 per cent growth this fiscal, but the Reserve Bank has scaled it down to 9.5 per cent.
As the political uncertainty settles down, investors are reviewing their assumptions about the power sector. Demand here is likely to continue to grow strongly in the long-term at around 5-6 per cent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) during the next 6-7 years. Given policy continuity, several trends will persist.
Guvt plans to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent in the next fiscal, 4.2 per cent in 2014-15, 3.6 per cent in 2015-16 and to three per cent in 2016-17.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday slashed the growth projection to 7 per cent for the current fiscal from the earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent, citing aggressive tightening of monetary policies globally and moderation in demand. Unveiling the fifth monetary policy for this fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank remains committed to price stability to put the country on the sustained path of growth.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Corporate earnings from blue-chips like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Donald Trump's swearing-in as the US President, and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors to drive equity markets this week, analysts said. Trump will be sworn in as the US president for a second term on Monday. This week, several key Nifty-50 companies, including BPCL, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Dr Reddy's, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel and ICICI Bank are scheduled to announce their financial results.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Subbarao's annual statement will be of unusual interest this year
The Delhi government has announced that vehicles older than 15 years will be denied fuel at petrol pumps starting April 1.
The government, in the forthcoming Budget, could consider levying higher tariffs on imports to check the significant decline in rupee value witnessed in the past few months, said EY Chief Policy Advisor DK Srivastava. The noted economist argued that higher import duties would curb the demand for dollars from importers and help arrest the sliding value of the rupee, which touched a historic low of 86.70 to a dollar on January 13.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday retained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal and said it expects the RBI to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review. In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal at 6.9 per cent and said solid growth in India will allow the Reserve Bank to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.
The State Bank of India (SBI), in its research, has estimated GDP growth during the current financial year (2024-25) to be 6.3 per cent, assuming that the NSO does not make major revisions to the erstwhile first and second quarter estimates.
Gross GST collections rose by 9.1 per cent to about Rs 1.84 lakh crore in February, boosted by domestic consumption and indicating potential economic revival. As per the official data released on Saturday, on a gross basis, mop up from Central GST stood at Rs 35,204 crore, State GST at Rs 43,704 crore, Integrated GST at Rs 90,870 crore and compensation cess of Rs 13,868 crore.
The RBI is likely to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points this week after keeping it on hold for two years, complementing the Union Budget initiatives to push consumption-led demand, though the sliding rupee continues to be a concern. As the retail inflation has remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone (less than 6 per cent) for most of the year, the central bank can take rate action to boost growth hit by sluggish consumption, opined experts.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
The interplay between domestic and foreign capital will shape India's equity markets.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
The RBI said that strong signs of fiscal consolidation are necessary to create a space for lowering policy rate without the risk of resurgent inflation.
he government in its budget for 2009-10 proposed to raise Rs 4.5 lakh crore (Rs 4.5 trillion) from the market, up from Rs 3.1 lakh crore (Rs 3.1 trillion) in the previous year and pegged the fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent of the GDP as against 6.2 per cent in 2008-09.
The government has utilised 'escape clause' under the FRBM Act which provides it leeway for relaxation of fiscal deficit roadmap during time of stress.
The government is confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the nominal GDP target of 10.5 per cent despite pressure in the initial months of FY24, Economic Affairs secretary Ajay Seth told Business Standard. Normally the initial months of any financial year see proportionally a higher fiscal deficit because the expenditure is evenly paced while revenue picks up in the later months, he said. "This year the proportional fiscal deficit so far is much closer to the target than in most other years.
Several questions arise on the appropriateness of the measure in the already strained fiscal scenario, says M Govinda Rao.
'... that it once again shies away from renewing its commitment to strategic divestment,' points out A K Bhattacharya.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday stressed that the monetary policy must remain actively disinflationary to ensure that the decline in inflation from its peak of 7.44 per cent in July continues smoothly. Addressing the Kautilya Economic Conclave 2023, he also said price stability and financial stability complement each other and it has been an endeavour at RBI to manage both efficiently. Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent annually in September on account of moderation in vegetables and fuel prices, and was back within the Reserve Bank's comfort level.
The critical information in the first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) data relates to the proximity of real and nominal GDP growth rates at 7.8 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. The implicit price deflator (IPD)-based inflation is only 0.2 per cent. This phenomenon has repeated after fifteen quarters.
Indian economy to grow at 6.3-6.8 pc in FY26, against 6.4 pc in FY25
'In the new coalition government, India's reform agenda may prioritise job creation and factor market reforms.'
The sweeping tariffs proposed across sectors by US President Donald Trump are scheduled to be imposed starting April 2, with most analysts worried about their impact on companies, and in turn the financial markets. Recently, the US administration signaled that it will impose sectoral tariffs on energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, agriculture, copper, and lumber.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the RBI's internal survey says manufacturing, services and infrastructure sector firms are optimistic of the business outlook.
In a major shift from his earlier stance, United States-President elect Donald Trump has expressed his support for the H-1B visa programme and acknowledged frequently using it for his own properties, calling it a 'great programme', according to a report by New York Post.
'If in our cities, all urban bus transport services are free, then the taxpayers are paying for it, or if electricity were to be made free, that's a huge cost to the rest of the people'
